Coverage prediction backtest Good fit Stable
Generated 2026-07-27T06:32:03.925Z · range 2026-06-25 → 2026-07-24 · model naive coverage % · residual = predicted − actual · artifact from ops:prediction report / ops:snapshot
n
30
backtest rows
MAE
2.87
mean abs error
RMSE
4.46
root mean square
Bias
2.87
mean (pred − actual)
Within ≤5
73%
calibration hit rate
Within ≤15
100%
soft band
Trend (½ MAE)
0.00
2.87 → 2.87 · stable
Over / under
14/0
16 exact · worst 2026-06-30
Worst |error|
10.00
2026-06-30
Mean |error|
2.87
series absolute
Last predicted
100.0
coverage %
Last actual
93.0
residual +7.00
Predicted vs actual
Residuals
Signed error (predicted − actual). Red = over-prediction.
|Error| distribution
Bucket counts · green ≤5 · amber ≤15 · red >15.
Rolling MAE
7-day rolling mean absolute error with good/fair band guides.
Series (30 rows)
| Date↕ | Predicted↕ | Actual↕ | Error↕ | |Error|↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | 100.00 | 93.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| 2026-07-23 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-22 | 100.00 | 96.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 2026-07-21 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-20 | 100.00 | 94.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| 2026-07-19 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-18 | 100.00 | 92.00 | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-16 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-15 | 100.00 | 90.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| 2026-07-14 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-13 | 100.00 | 97.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| 2026-07-12 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-11 | 100.00 | 95.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-09 | 100.00 | 93.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| 2026-07-08 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-07 | 100.00 | 96.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 2026-07-06 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-05 | 100.00 | 94.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| 2026-07-04 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-03 | 100.00 | 92.00 | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| 2026-07-02 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-01 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-06-30 | 100.00 | 90.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| 2026-06-29 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-06-28 | 100.00 | 97.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | 100.00 | 95.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
